Fora d'òrbita


En Joan m'ha fitxat per Valors, un d'aquests projectes seus que funcionen gràcies a la seva empenta i un grup de persones magnífic, com una peça d'artesania tot plegat, i la veritat és que no només no li podia dir que no sinó que a més em fa molta il·lusió. L'acord és que esciuré una columneta mensual -per cert ja començo a fer tard per la del proper mes!-, i també les aniré penjant aquí. La columna es dirà "Fora d'òrbita", una mica per provocar i perquè així puc escriure el que em vingui de gust vaja. Aquí sota transcric la priemra columna -si la llegiu veureu que em va sortir massa sèria, fotos i impressions més íntimes del viatge ja les penjaré-.

Notes d’un viatge a Síria

L’any 2002 el president George W.Bush no va dubtar en qualificar Síria com un país membre de l’anomenat “eix del mal”. El president nordamericà es referia així als règims dictatorials sospitosos de prestar ajuda al terrorisme internacional. No és estrany, doncs, que la imatge que a priori un pugui tenir de Síria sigui la d’un país tancat, gris, proper al radicalisme religiós i de persones de caràcter àrid. Aquestes idees inicials, però, es veuen notablement alterades després d’una visita al país. Difícilment concorda l’afirmació de Bush amb l’hospitalitat i amabilitat que el visitant rep de la gent de Síria. A nivell macro, però, l’assignatura pendent del govern baazista són les seves relacions internacionals i el seu paper al Pròxim Orient. El règim de Bashar Al-Assad continua sense reconèixer formalment l’estat d’Israel. La disputa territorial sobre els Alts del Golan, territoris ocupats des del 1967, resta encara per resoldre i és de fet un dels conflictes latents més importants del Pròxim Orient. Per altra part, Síria s’ha distingit històricament per les seves relacions erràtiques amb el Líban i els darreres anys pel seu suport quasi explícit a Hezbollah. Potser la pregunta més rellevant pel que fa al futur de Síria és quins factors podrien contribuir a un procés de democratització. És a dir, fins a quint punt és sostenible el règim baazista fonamentat en unes elits governants interessades en la persistència del règim. Síria és un país de majoria musulmana sunita però amb una pluralitat cultural i religiosa gens menyspreable –les minories musulmanes xiïtes, alauites i drusos sumen un 16% de la població mentre que un altre 10% el sumen les minories cristianes de grecs ortodoxes i armenis-. Una altra dada important és l’elevat nivell de corrupció; el qual segons dades citades al setmanari Syria Today podria significar entre un 20% i un 40% del PIB sirià. Una observació sobre el terreny, però, indica que els nivells de desigualtat econòmica no són especialment alts ni tampoc el percentatge de pobresa extrema. El que sí s’observa és una classe mitjana creixent que podria estar interessada en reformes modernitzadores. Així doncs, és raonable pensar que un creixement econòmic sostingut podria incentivar pressions internes a la societat síria vers un canvi de règim. La pregunta maquiavèlica, però, és si un nou sistema parlamentari podrà representar de forma coherent la pluralitat religiosa i ètnica que fins ara el règim baazista ha mantingut en la foscor.

Comentaris

joansalicru ha dit…
Francesc,
el que està més agraït aquí sóc jo, amb tu, amb en Joan S. i amb en Ramon R., que a partir d'ara participeu també d'aquest projecte tan important per a mi.
Els que he citat no tenim exactament la mateixa manera de veure el món però si que tenim passió per veure el món, per sentir-lo, per analitzar-lo. Valors també ha de servir per això, com El Ciervo ho va fer en el seu moment.
una abraçada,
joan
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Ep Francesc. Gairebé el teu article, es pot completar amb els diferents apunts sobre Israel del meu blog. De fet, fa dies pensava que Síria és el país amb el que Israel necessita més urgentment obrir relacions: els Alts del Golan no tenen cap importància estratègica i ja són només un símbol - excepte en temes hídrics i agrícoles -, es tallaria el camí de Teheran a Beirut (i mirant-ho de forma optimista, perdria importància el Hizbulah), i alhora tornaria Damasc a un lloc normalitzat com a país important a la regió. Ara bé, la història de la Gran Síria i altres bajanades, a més de com dius, l'alt nivell de corrupció del règim Baasista, no sé com poden encaixar. També per part israeliana, aquesta negociacions discretes a través de Turquia són els darrers esforços d'un primer ministre apunt de dimitir, per corrupció, també.

És molt interessant aquest composició abigarrada del país (uf, i de cristians n'hi ha de totes menes, l'esglèsia siriaca i un bon nombre d'esglèsies orientals hi tenen la seu dels patriarcats).

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